China Direct

Interpreting China's economy & recovery post-covid - CSIS

 

In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair Jude Blanchette is joined by Carl Minzner – Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council for Foreign Relations and a Professor of Law at Fordham Law School, Gerard Dipippo – Senior Fellow in the Economics Program at CSIS, and Andrew Polk – Co-founder of Trivium China and Senior associate with the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS. Through the lens of China’s politburo and domestic leadership, they examine how China assesses its economy and recovery since the end of zero-COVID policies.

Our thanks to the team at CSIS for kindly sharing this podcast and insights.

World Bank - China Economic Update - Navigating Uncertainty

Kindly find the World Bank’s latest China Economic Update titled “Navigating Uncertainty ” released yesterday. In it The World Bank projects economic growth in China to slow to 2.7 percent in 2022 before recovering to 4.3 percent in 2023 amid a reopening of the economy. The growth outlook is subject to significant risks. The continued adaptation of China’s public health policies will be crucial to mitigate public health risks and also minimize further economic disruptions.

The report also includes a special feature on youth unemployment in China. 

Navigating Uncertainty - China's economy in 2023

China Economic Update Dec 2022

Our sincere thanks to China Chief Economist Ibrahim Chowdhury and his team for kindly sharing their report.

 

 

Integrating online and offline settlement under regional trade agreements in East Asia

Dear CBI Members,

Kindly find an insightful briefing into the likely options available to manufacturers, particularly in East Asia, regarding online and offline trading under regional trade agreements.

 

Author: Pindar Wong, VeriFi Ltd

Manufacturers in East Asia now have the option to settle trade under three major trade frameworks: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Will they continue to use the US dollar as the de facto unit of account for financial settlements, or will they choose cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, or Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) such as China’s e-CNY?

To continue reading this article kindly join the article link here.

Our sincere thanks to EAF for providing this article by Pindar Wong of VeriFi Ltd

Date for Diaries: 13 Dec Asia House Global Trade Dialogue 2021

 

Asia House Global Trade Dialogue 2021: Rebooting Trade for a Post-COVID World

The Asia House Global Trade Dialogue returns in December with a forward-looking discussion on the transition towards a post-COVID global recovery.

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to present public health and economic challenges around the world, countries are starting to plot their recoveries from the crisis, with global trade set to be a key driver of economic growth.

UK Secretary of State for International Trade, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, will share her thoughts on the future of trade as economies seek to build back from the pandemic. The Secretary of State will also outline the UK’s trade strategy in Asia and beyond.

Japan’s former Foreign Minister Kono Taro, WTO Deputy Director General Angela Ellard, and  Xinquan Tu, Dean and Professor of the China Institute for WTO Studies of University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, will share their thoughts on current geopolitical and trade tensions, while Scott Beaumont, President, Google Asia Pacific, and Amanda Murphy, Head of Commercial Banking, South & Southeast Asia, HSBC, will explore the role of digital technologies in the global economic recovery.

The Asia House Global Trade Dialogue 2021
Monday 13 December 09:00-10:15

REGISTER NOW

The Asia House Global Trade Dialogue 2021 is sponsored by Arup.

For more information, please contact Edward Danks at [email protected]

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SPEAKERS 

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, UK Secretary of State for International Trade

Anne-Marie Trevelyan was appointed Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade on 15 September 2021. She was appointed as the UK International Champion on Adaptation and Resilience for the COP26 Presidency on 7 November 2020.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan was previously Minister of State (Minister for Energy, Clean Growth and Climate Change) at the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy from January 2021 to September 2021.

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Kono Taro, Former Foreign Minister, Japan

Having previously held government positions including Foreign Minister and Minister of Defence under former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Kono Taro is known as one of Japan’s most outspoken politicians and clearest foreign policy thinkers. His most recent ministerial position was Minister for Administrative Reform, where he oversaw Japan’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout and spearheaded initiatives to digitise government. He was appointed Chairperson, Public Relations Headquarters, the Liberal Democratic Party, in October 2021.

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Angela Ellard, Deputy Director General to the World Trade Organization

Angela Ellard has served as WTO Deputy Director-General since June 2021. Prior to her appointment, Ms Ellard had a distinguished career serving in the US Congress as Majority and Minority Chief Trade Counsel for over 26 years. She is internationally recognized as an expert on trade and international economic policy, resolving trade and investment barriers, negotiating trade agreements, and supporting multilateral solutions as part of an effective trade and development policy. Ms Ellard has negotiated and delivered significant bipartisan trade policy outcomes and legislation with Members of U.S. Congress and senior Biden, Trump, Obama, Bush, and Clinton Administration officials. Ms Ellard was also a lawyer in the private sector, specializing in trade litigation and strategy, trade policy, and legislative issues.

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Scott Beaumont, President, Google Asia Pacific

Scott Beaumont has worked at Google for 11 years, previously serving as Google President for Greater China and Korea. Before joining Google, Beaumont ran his own tech start up, Refresh Mobile, having previously worked for T-Mobile as Executive Vice President for Business Development. He is a member of the  Asia House Advisory Board.

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Amanda Murphy, Head of Commercial Banking, South & Southeast Asia, HSBC

Amanda Murphy was appointed Head of Commercial Banking, South & Southeast Asia, with effect from December 2021, and is a member of the Global Commercial Banking Executive Committee. Based in Singapore, Amanda has oversight of our businesses in Australia, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mauritius, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

Amanda initially joined HSBC in 1994 and became an International Manager in 1998. Her career has spanned numerous frontline, risk and leadership roles across Europe, the Middle East, North America and Asia-Pacific. Most recently, Amanda led the Commercial Bank in the UK from April 2017 and was responsible for HSBC’s relationships with over 900,000 small, medium and large business customers and a team of approximately 4,700 people.

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Xinquan Tu, Dean and Professor of the China Institute for WTO Studies of University of International Business and Economics, Beijing

Xinquan Tu is an academic and commentator whose research and teaching focuses on Chinese trade policy, the WTO, government procurement, US trade policy, and US-China trade relations. He received his PhD in international trade from the University of International Business and Economics in 2004. He authored ‘China’s position, role and strategy in the WTO‘ (published by The Press of UIBE) in 2005, and has published a number of papers and chapters in books.

UK applies to join huge Pacific free trade area CPTPP

UNDER STRICT EMBARGO FOR 2230 SATURDAY 30 JANUARY 

UK applies to join huge Pacific free trade area CPTPP 

The government is formally applying to join one of the world’s largest free-trade areas, to position the UK at the heart of emerging economies in the Pacific and support jobs across the UK. 

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss will speak to ministers in Japan and New Zealand on Monday morning (1 February 2021) to request to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), with formal negotiations set to start this year.

The announcement comes as the UK today celebrates one year since leaving the EU and becoming an independent trading nation.  

Joining the CPTPP would deepen the UK’s access to fast-growing markets and major economies, including Mexico, Malaysia and Vietnam, for the benefit of UK business.   

Joining the £9 trillion partnership will cut tariffs for UK industries including food and drink, and cars, while also creating new opportunities for modern industries like tech and services, ultimately supporting and creating high-value jobs across the UK. Unlike EU membership, joining does not require the UK to cede control over our laws, borders, or money. 

UK trade with the group was worth £111 billion last year, growing by 8% a year since 2016. Benefits that CPTPP membership will bring for businesses include:  

• Modern digital trade rules that allow data to flow freely between members, remove unnecessary barriers for businesses, and protect commercial source code and encryption. 
• Eliminating tariffs quicker on UK exports including whisky (down from 165% to 0% in Malaysia) and cars (reducing to 0% in Canada by 2022, two years earlier than through the UK-Canada trade deal). 
• Rules of Origin that allow content from any country within CPTPP to count as ‘originating’. For example, this would mean that cars made in the UK could use more Japanese-originating car parts, such as batteries.
• Easier travel for businesspeople between CPTPP countries, such as the potential for faster and cheaper visas.  

 

The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said 

“One year after our departure for the EU we are forging new partnerships that will  bring enormous economic benefits for the people of Britain. 

“Applying to be the first new country to join the CPTPP demonstrates our ambition to do  business on the best terms with our friends and partners all over the world and be an  enthusiastic champion of global free trade.” 

 

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss said 

“Joining CPTPP will create enormous opportunities for UK businesses that simply  weren’t there as part of the EU and deepen our ties with some of the fastest-growing  markets in the world.   

“It will mean lower tariffs for car manufacturers and whisky producers, and better  access for our brilliant services providers, delivering quality jobs and greater prosperity  for  people here at home. 

“We’re at the front of the queue and look forward to starting formal negotiations in the coming months.”  

The UK will publish its negotiation objectives, scoping analysis, and consultation response in advance of negotiations expected to start this Spring. 

CPTPP membership is a key part of the Government’s plan to position the UK at the centre of a network of modern free trade deals that support jobs and drive economic growth at home. 

 

Julian David, CEO of techUK, said: 

“Today marks an important step in UK’s path to developing a modern trade policy that creates new opportunities for the UK tech sector. Building on our recent agreements with Japan and the European Union, the accession to the CPTPP will allow us to join a group of ambitious countries breaking the newest ground in digital trade.  

“The UK has been a major beneficiary of the rise of digital trade with over 67% of service exports worth £190.3 billion being digitally delivered. CPTPP will open up new markets for innovative tech SMEs looking to grow and expand beyond our borders. We are looking forward to working with the government throughout the process.” 

 

Mike Cherry, Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) Chair, said: 

"Membership of the CPTPP would be a hugely welcome development to all small businesses looking to either expand or begin their trading journeys. 

"Crucially, at the very heart of this agreement is an SME chapter, something that we have lobbied for the inclusion of in every FTA, ensuring that no business is left behind. 

"This is truly a world-leading agreement and one that will genuinely help small firms to thrive and succeed more than ever." 

 

CBI President, Lord Karan Bilimoria, said:  

“This ambition marks a new chapter for our independent trade policy. As one of the largest free trade agreements in the world, these 11 countries contribute over £100 billion to our economy.  

“Membership of the bloc has the potential to deliver new opportunities for UK business across different sectors. The CBI will continue to work with the Government to ensure that firms get the most out of an agreement that will create jobs and deliver wide-ranging benefits to communities across the country." 

Notes to Editors 

• CPTPP facts
• CPTPP includes 11 Pacific nations (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam), which are worth £9tn of GDP
• CPTPP removes tariffs on 95% of goods traded between members 
• Membership will complement the bilateral FTAs the UK has already concluded or is negotiating with nine of the CPTPP members. 
• The UK automotive sector will benefit from lower of trade barriers on the £3billion worth of cars exported from the UK to the 11 CPTPP countries annually. The industry employs 164,000 people in the UK and businesses could find opportunities for growth if we accede¹.
• CPTPP sets higher digital standards and removes barriers to digital trade.Last year, digitally delivered services from the UK to CPTPP members hit £18.7 billion and joining now creates an opportunity to unleash forward leaning parts of our economy. 
• Our accession also aims to boost UK regions and nations. Scotland exported £2.4 billion-worth of goods to CPTPP member countries in 2019, and a further £5.1 billion was exported from the North West and East Midlands².
• International Trade Secretary Liz Truss will speak on Monday 1 February with Japan’s Minister for CPTPP, Yasutoshi Nishimura, who is the Chair of the 2021 CPTPP commission and with Damien O’Connor, Minister for Trade and Economic Growth in New Zealand, which stores official documentation for all CPTPP members. An official letter will be submitted to the New Zealand government and distributed to all CPTPP members. 
• Data sources: ONS UK trade: all countries, non-seasonally adjusted, Q2 2020 ; IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2020 ; ONS, Modes of Supply, 2019 ; BEIS Business Population Estimates, 2020 ; HMRC Regional trade in goods, Q3 2020. 
• The Government has been clear that the NHS and the price it pays for drugs is not for sale in any trade negotiations – including CPTPP – and that it will not sign trade deals that compromise the UK’s high environmental protections, animal welfare and food standards.
• Joining CPTPP is a critical part of the government’s wider trade strategy, which aims to deepen links with faster-growing parts of the world beyond Europe, partnering with countries who believe in free and fair trade.

UK and Japan start trade negotiations

 

UK and Japan start trade negotiations

The UK and Japanese governments will today (Tuesday 9 June) start negotiating a UK-Japan Free Trade Agreement.  

The agreement will build on the existing EU-Japan deal. It will go further by securing additional benefits in areas such as digital trade, and providing support for the UK’s 5.9 million small businesses.

It will allow the UK and Japan to set new standards in areas of digital technology and e-commerce, helping to establish our position as a global technology superpower. 

Last year, UK trade with Japan was worth over £30 billion and 9,500 UK based businesses exported goods to the country, helping to employ 2.4 million people across the UK. A bespoke free trade agreement with Japan will help generate significant opportunities throughout the economy, creating jobs, boosting wages and diversifying choice for consumers. 

UK-Japan trade talks are also an important step towards our joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a key UK priority, which will help us diversify our trade and grow the economy.  

The UK and Japan are committed to an ambitious timeline to secure a deal that will enter into force by the end of 2020. Both countries are also dedicated to leading the global response to the economic challenges posed by coronavirus, making international trade easier and fairer and avoiding a retreat into protectionism.

The International Trade Secretary Liz Truss and the Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Motegi Toshimitsu are launching negotiations via video conference call.  

On the UK side, talks will be led at official level by Graham Zebedee, with all UK trade negotiations being overseen by Crawford Falconer, DIT’s Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser.  

Government analysis shows a UK Japan FTA will benefit every region and nation of the UK, with the greatest benefits in Scotland, London and the East Midlands. 

International Trade Secretary Liz Truss said:  

“Today marks a historic moment in the long-standing friendship between the UK and Japan. 

“As we kick start trade talks, we aim to strike a comprehensive free trade agreement that goes further than the deal previously agreed with the EU,  setting ambitious standards in areas such as digital trade and services. A trade deal with Japan will also advance the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will improve market access for UK businesses across the Asia-Pacific region.

“This deal will provide more opportunities for businesses and individuals across every region and nation of the UK and help boost our economies following the unprecedented economic challenges posed by coronavirus.”

Takaaki Hanaoka, Secretary General of the Japanese Chamber of Commerce & Industry in the UK said:  

“We, Japanese Chamber of Commerce＆ Industry in the UK welcome the movement of starting negotiation of Free Trade agreement by both UK and Japanese governments.

“The UK and Japan have common ground in that both have mature markets and societies.  Both can be partners in further developing economic activities through mutual trade and investment.  We urge strongly that a legally binding FTA between UK and Japan be agreed at the earliest opportunity.” 

Negotiations will be conducted remotely, via videoconference, across six working groups and will cover all 23 chapters and annexes of the future agreement. Around 100 negotiators will be involved on the UK side.    

A common-sense approach to negotiations will ensure that talks can progress during the COVID-19 pandemic, while public health and social distancing measures can continue to be respected.  

Josh Hardie, CBI Deputy Director-General, said: 

“The launch of the UK-Japan talks is a big step forward to creating an ambitious free trade agreement. 

“Japan offers huge opportunities for two-way trade and investment, one that will benefit every region and nation across the country. 

“Business is optimistic that a deal focused on supporting digital trade and industries of the future can be reached.”

The government is committed to conducting trade negotiations transparently, and we will provide further information on the progress of the talks as they go on.

ENDS   

Notes to Editors: 

• Japan is the UK’s 4^thlargest non-EU trading partner (11^th overall), with total trade reaching £31.4 billion in 2019.  Source - UK trade, quarterly trade in goods and services tables: October to December 2019
• The UK and Japan are major investors in each other’s economies, ranking fifth and sixth respectively for inward foreign direct investment. Source: ONS, Foreign direct investment (FDI) totals for inward and outward flows, positions and earnings: 2018 and JETRO, Japanese External Trade Organization, FDI stock (Based on International Investment Position, net) 
• Trade with Japan is integral to UK jobs and businesses. In 2018, around 9,500 VAT registered businesses exported £6bn worth of goods to Japan, employing 2.4 million people. Around 6,700 VAT registered business, employing 2.5 million people, imported £10bn worth of goods from Japan. Source:  HMRC UK trade in goods by business characteristics 2018
• Government analysis published last month shows that the UK economy could  benefit from a £1.5 billion boost in the long run. A UK-Japan trade deal could increase trade flows between both countries by £15.2 billion. 
• UK workers’ wages could increase by £800 million in the long run as a result of the agreement. 

US-China Trade Deal - CBI Washington DC & CBI Beijing Insights

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

Kindly find a policy overview below of the recently agreed US-China Trade Deal from both of the CBI's Washington DC and Beijing offices.

Download (1) 16 2020 - Member Briefing_ US - China Trade Tensions

China Direct would like to thank Policy Analysts John Bleed and Joe Cash for their invaluable insights.

For more information or details please contact them via: [email protected] or [email protected]

Thank you.

European Chamber of Commerce China Launches 2018 Position Paper

The European Chamber of Commerce in China launched their 2018/2019 Position Paper in Beijing last Tuesday.

Calling on President Xi and the Chinese Government to further market access, licensing and standards reforms, the paper focusses on the notion of ‘Reform Deficit.’

The European Chamber’s position is that China needs to make a more concentrated, efficient and sincere effort to expand the market access reform rhetoric which was set out by President Xi at the 2013 Third Plenum, at Davos in 2017, and at the 19^th Party Congress in 2018.

The Chamber believes, that many of the market access reforms which have been introduced at the national level are ‘too little, too late,’ or are undermined by lingering preferential policies towards Chinese companies at the provincial and city level. In addition to this, there is the issue that reforms in certain sectors are being implemented too slowly or are being implemented too quickly, and then adjusted and altered on too frequent a basis for EU companies to be able to adjust.

Across the 22 working groups consulted, there was almost unanimous concern surrounding issues related to: consultation and communication, standards setting, transparency issues, unclear regulations and unpredictable enforcement, and that China did not encourage the presence of SMEs in the market.

The paper concludes that European businesses in China still face significant shortcomings in the reform agenda that still need to be resolved.

Please find the paper here.

JETCO in Beijing - good news for UK Food & Retail

The annual UK-China Joint Economic Trade Committee met in Beijing last week.

Whilst the official press release has not yet been circulated there was some good news for the UK's dairy industry and Scottish exporters of seed potatoes:

1.) International Trade Secretary secures major deal for UK dairy in China -https://www.gov.uk/government/news/international-trade-secretary-secures-major-deal-for-uk-dairy-in-china

 

2.) International Trade Secretary signs major deal allowing export of UK seed potatoes to China - 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/international-trade-secretary-signs-major-deal-allowing-export-of-uk-seed-potatoes-to-china

 

 

LONG-TERM EXPORTS STRATEGY NEEDED FOR POST-BREXIT BRITAIN – CBI

 

LONG-TERM EXPORTS STRATEGY NEEDED FOR POST-BREXIT BRITAIN – CBI

Deputy British Ambassadors should be responsible for flying trade flag

A long-term, cross-government strategy, rather than short-term initiatives and campaigns, is the best way for the UK to export more and be a leading trading nation post-Brexit, according to a new CBI report.

Winning Worldwide, published ahead of the Department for International Trade’s (DIT) new Export Strategy, sets out a raft of practical proposals for the Government to take to support exporters, increase the number of firms selling their goods and services overseas and help British businesses to be more internationally minded.

CBI analysis has shown that the more firms export, the more competitive, productive and innovative they are. Yet, despite exporters generating 30.5% of the UK’s GDP and the high profile of the British brand, less than 10% of firms actually export and the country’s export performance has declined continually for 20 years, with competitors such as Germany far outperforming the UK in the last decade. Among other measures to remedy this, the UK’s largest business group is proposing:

• Deputy Heads of Mission in British Embassies be given new responsibilities for trade and export promotion in countries across the globe
• A high-profile business person be appointed HM Chief Trade Ambassador to champion exports. More UK trade missions should also be led overseas, with a greater focus on individual sectors and countries
• The Department for Education and business jointly review the teaching of foreign languages in schools, and the Mandarin Excellence programme and a similar programme for Arabic is expanded
• A combined industrial strategy and exports strategy with greater joined-up collaboration between the Department for Business (BEIS) and DIT.

Ben Digby, CBI International Director, said:

“Rarely has the demand for Brand Britain been so high. From cars to consultancies, and fashion to FinTech, the quality and instant recognisability of UK plc products and services is a tremendous national asset.

“We have a fantastic base on which to build a lasting and durable exports strategy that will ultimately lead to many more of our world class companies selling their goods and services around the globe. And all at the very moment the UK is busy looking to deepen trade ties in every corner of the globe, post-Brexit.

“This is a marathon, not a sprint though. To succeed where others have stumbled, the Government must take a long-term approach to exports that sticks, instead of headline grabbing short-term initiatives. First, by starting at home – twinning industrial and export strategies and ensuring employees are more globally minded. Then, by focusing on delivery as much as strategy, with every department asking: what can we do to spur trade?

“DIT can play a vital role in coordinating that effort across Whitehall. And by bolstering the support on offer through our Embassies, we can boost the number of firms exporting and providing strong competition on the global trading stage.

“Ultimately, it is businesses that trade though, not the Government. As firms look forward to the Government’s Export Strategy, their needs must remain at the heart of the UK’s approach to trade, as we both seek to create a truly global Britain.”

Other key recommendations in Winning Worldwide include:

• A cross-Government Export Strategy Council to join up different policy strands, led by officials from DIT, BEIS, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and the Departments for International Development, Transport and the Environment
• An analysis of freight movement to ensure the UK’s transport network is future-proofed for the movement of goods
• A simple guide to finance options for small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) produced by UK Export Finance
• Firms should identify opportunities for British suppliers within their supply chains, and be champions for exporting by supporting smaller firms, practically and by sharing their expertise, in taking their first exporting steps
• An expansion of existing initiatives such as the Joint Economic and Trade Cooperation (JETCO) and Economic & Financial Dialogue (EFD) programmes to cover a wider range of countries.

The report also looks at steps firms can take to increase exports to key markets, such as China, India and the USA, from engaging local advisors with deep knowledge of the local regulations, business environment and culture, to making greater use of local chambers of commerce and economic development agencies.

Download CBI_Exports_report