China Direct

Merics China Forecast 2023

Merics' survey of 880 China watchers suggests the country’s course is most unpredictable – except that it will continue to stand by Moscow and accept EU-China

relations fraying.

Unbridled power in the hands of Xi Jinping, underlying pressures economic and social, and unpredictable policies in any number of fields – the level of

uncertainty about China in the year ahead has never been higher than in this fourth edition of our MERICS China Forecast. MERICS solicited the views of 880

China experts and non-expert members of the public with an interest in the country. Their responses don’t make for optimistic reading. 

Last year’s events in China at least still ranged from the surprising to the certain. In October, Xi secured his expected third term as general secretary and packed the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Politburo with loyalists. But then in November, nationwide protests against draconian Covid-19 lockdowns caught the political establishment on the back foot. And it, in turn, in December surprised everyone by abruptly ending many of its zero-covid measures. At the start of 2023, the China watchers we surveyed consider the ongoing dynamics of Covid-19, the geopolitical environment and a looming global recession as the top three challenges the country in the (still almost) 12 months ahead. They are seen as additional risks to China’s economic and technological development, with the potential to put greater pressure on Chinese society. Given this, our respondents consider Covid-19 measures, economic stress and social inequality the most likely triggers of renewed public dissent. To access the MERICS 2023 FORECAST please click here.

Our sincere thanks to MERICS for sharing the Forecast.

China Investment Environment and M&A Trends 2022 - Interchina

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

Please find the latest China Investment Environment and M&A Trends Survey from Interchina, a Shanghai based Consultancy.

Download InterChina-Investment-MA-Survey-June-2022

Our thanks to the team at InterChina for kindly sharing these insights.

UK Partners Business Briefing with HMA Caroline Wilson CMG: 20th June 2022

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

The China-Britain Business Council (CBBC) in partnership with the British Chamber of Commerce (China, Shanghai, Guangdong and Southwest chapters) and The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) are delighted to welcome our members to join an online briefing with British Ambassador to China, Dame Caroline Wilson CMG on Monday, 20^th June between 4-5pm (China time).

Dame Caroline will provide an update of Her Majesty’s Government’s priorities for China with a particular focus on trade and investment between the UK and China, recovery from the recent Shanghai lockdown, geopolitical tensions as well as bilateral exchanges.

Following Dame Caroline’s update, CBBC’s Chief Executive, Andrew Seaton, will chair a Q&A session. If there’s any question you’d like to raise, please submit prior to the event by contacting [email protected].

Further details can be found here: Download Briefing with HM Ambassador Caroline Wilson 20.06.22.

Agenda:

16:00-16:05        Welcome remarks, Sir Sherard Cowper, Chair, China-Britain Business Council

16:05-16:35        Briefing from HM Ambassador, Caroline Wilson CMG

16:35-16:55        Q&A chaired by Andrew Seaton, Chief Executive, China-Britain Business Council

16:55-17:00        Closing remarks

SW China Opportunities - Insights and Summary

Please find a short overview of SW China and opportunities for UK and international business in this vibrant, diverse region of mainland China:

Download SW China Briefing March 22

Our thanks to the British Consulate in Chongqing for kindly sharing this information.

 

 

The View from China - CBI International Briefing 31.03.22

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

Please find registration and booking details for the CBI China team's latest International Briefing which will take place this Thursday 31st March 2022 from 0930-1015 (UK) / 1630-1715 (BJ).

The View from China - International Briefing 31.03.22

We look forward to seeing you online later this week.

China Trade Tracker Oct 2021 - UK-China Trade and Investment Insights and Analysis

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

Kindly find a link to the newly launched China Trade Tracker, a quarterly publication from the CBBC, which analyses UK-China trade and investment trends and flows.

China Trade Tracker Oct 2021

With our thanks to the CBBC for kindly sharing this information.

 

UK-China Trade & Investment Fact Sheet October 2021

Dear CBI Members and Colleagues,

Kindly find the October 2021 UK-China trade and investment fact sheet prepared by the CBBC.

Download CBBC One Page Fact Sheet - 14th October 2021

Our grateful thanks to the CBBC for sharing.

UK-China Trade & Investment Fact Sheet August 2021

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

Kindly find the latest UK-China Trade and Investment Fact sheet published in August 2021.

Download China-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2021-08-19

Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Europe: 2020 Update

 

Dear CBI Members and Partners,

Please find an Executive Summary and a link to the full report, kindly provided by Merics, the Mercator Institute for China Studies, below:

Chinese FDI in Europe: 2020 Update

Investment falls to 10-year low in an economically and politically challenging year

Executive summary

• China’s global outbound investment hit a 13-year low in 2020: Concerns that the Covid-19 global pandemic slump might trigger another round of Chinese distressed asset-buying proved unfounded. Instead, China’s global outbound M&A activity dropped to a 13-year low, as completed merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions totalled just EUR 25 billion, down 45 percent from 2019.
• China’s FDI in Europe continued to fall, to a 10-year low: Shrinking M&A activity meant the EU-27 and the United Kingdom saw a 45 percent decline in completed Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) last year, down to EUR 6.5 billion from EUR 11.7 billion in 2019, taking investment in Europe to a 10-year low. However, greenfield Chinese investment reached its highest level since 2016 at nearly EUR 1.3 billion.
• The “Big-3” reclaimed their top spot, Poland emerged as a key recipient: More than half of total Chinese investment in Europe went to the “Big Three” economies – Germany, the UK and France. However, the UK saw Chinese investment plummet by 77 percent. Poland rose to become the second most popular destination, though inflows of EUR 815 million were largely concentrated on one acquisition.
• China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) took a higher share in a quiet market: SOEs were responsible for 18 percent of total Chinese FDI to Europe, higher than 11 percent 2019 but still significantly below historical averages. Their investment stayed relatively stable in absolute terms, however, concentrating in energy, infrastructure and basic materials. Private sector investment dropped by almost 50 percent.
• Chinese investment was spread more evenly across sectors: Small- and mid- size transactions dominated in 2020, with no major billion-dollar acquisitions as in 2019. As a result, Chinese investment was spread more evenly across sectors. Infrastructure, ICT and electronics were the top three sectors, attracting 51 percent of the total.
• Chinese FDI faces greater scrutiny by EU member states: The Covid-19 crisis prompted the EU to issue guidelines stepping up scrutiny of FDI in Europe’s critical assets. 14 EU member states, including Italy, France, Poland and Hungary, have updated their FDI screening mechanisms last year. Member states have also moved to block several acquisitions by Chinese firms.
• Headwinds to Chinese investment in Europe will grow in 2021: Chinese FDI activity into Europe continued to fall in the first quarter of 2021 and has remained weak elsewhere, even as global M&A activity has recovered and surged to a 10- year high of EUR 1.08 trillion. Europe remains an attractive investment location. However, continued disruption from Covid-19, high barriers to outward capital flows in China and rising regulatory barriers to foreign investment in Europe have all contributed to low levels of Chinese investments. Deteriorating EU-China relations will create additional headwinds for Chinese investors going forward.

The full Executive Summary and Report can be downloaded directly via this link.

Our thanks again to Merics and the Rhodium Group.

 

 

New Beijing Investment Guide - PwC

Dear CBI members and Partners,

Please find below a comprehensive bilingual investment guide highlighting the latest insights and incentives for businesses seeking to set up or invest in Beijing.

Download Invest in [email protected]&EN

With thanks to CBI member PWC for sharing the Guide.