
A short summary of several key financial and regulatory headlines...
China Direct would like to thank Noah Shaw, the CBI's Beijing based Policy Analyst, for preparing this note.
China Q2 GDP growth beats expectations
China's gross domestic product rose 6.9% in the second quarter, faster-than-expected, setting the country on course to comfortably meet its 2017 growth target and giving policymakers room to tackle big economic challenges ahead of key leadership changes later this year, according to Reuters. The boost to growth was in part driven by firmer exports and production, in particular steel, which could heighten trade tensions as the United States and China begin economic talks this week. Economic data from the second quarter has prompted a number of analysts to upgrade their GDP forecasts for China for 2017, although some moderation in growth is expected later this year as policymakers' efforts to rein in property and debt risks weigh on activity. Citi raised its 2017 annual GDP projection to 6.8% on-year from 6.6% previously.
China warns banks against lending to Wanda
Chinese banks have been warned by regulators against lending to Dalian Wanda as the serial acquirer comes under official scrutiny following a half-decade overseas dealmaking binge. Regulators instructed banks to restrict exposure to the property-to-movies conglomerate in a meeting on June 20, according to notes of the meeting that were seen by the Financial Times. A person familiar with the discussions between banks and regulators vis-a-vis Wanda said six Wanda deals were discussed. The document cites two of the deals by name, giving strict instructions to banks not to finance them, accept their assets as collateral, list them in China or inject them into Wanda's China-listed companies. Wanda was also told not to inject any of its own assets into the six acquisitions or sell them to other Chinese buyers. Overall the meeting appeared to highlight official anxiety about Wanda's financial situation. The unlisted parent, which does not publish information about its liabilities, made virtually all of Wanda's foreign acquisitions.
Coal and steel still large and in charge
“Rebalancing with Chinese characteristics,” Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University’s HSBC Business School in Shenzhen, declared upon hearing the news that China’s steel output had hit a record high in June. In doing so, he referred to two things: current president Xi Jinping’s years-long policy goal of “rebalancing” the economy away from heavy industry and toward services, and former leader Deng Xiaoping’s famous maxim about “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” a phrase that is often used derisively but refers to the government’s vision of China as a country with a balance of public sector control and private sector competitiveness. Xi’s rebalancing act has not reduced the role of government-subsidized heavy industry and manufacturing: Quartz reports that record coal and steel output — a side of China’s economy that is both polluting and disproportionately state-owned — is largely responsible for recent economic growth trends. According to Bloomberg, a “factory rebound” led to these numbers, all of which slimly surpassed survey expectations by less than 0.5 percent, except for industrial output, which rose 1.1 percent above expectations:
- GDP up 6.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier
- Industrial output up 7.6 percent in June from a year earlier
- Fixed-asset investment up 8.6 percent in the first half of this year
- Retail sales up 11 percent from a year earlier in June
Chinese stocks plummet after financial planning meeting
On Saturday, July 15, China’s senior leaders concluded the National Financial Work Conference which takes place every five years, with what Keith Bradsher in the New York Times calls (paywall) “modest” results: “The biggest accomplishment of the conference appeared to be an announcement that a commission would be established under the auspices of the cabinet,” known in China as the State Council. When trading in Chinese stocks resumed on Monday, the South China Morning Post reports that “more than 2,800 stocks fell across Chinese markets…with nearly 500 dropping by their daily limit of 10 per cent.” The SCMP attributes the sell-off to “fears that the financial sector will face a prolonged period of increased scrutiny” after the National Financial Work Conference.