Merics' survey of 880 China watchers suggests the country’s course is most unpredictable – except that it will continue to stand by Moscow and accept EU-China
relations fraying.
Unbridled power in the hands of Xi Jinping, underlying pressures economic and social, and unpredictable policies in any number of fields – the level of
uncertainty about China in the year ahead has never been higher than in this fourth edition of our MERICS China Forecast. MERICS solicited the views of 880
China experts and non-expert members of the public with an interest in the country. Their responses don’t make for optimistic reading.
Last year’s events in China at least still ranged from the surprising to the certain. In October, Xi secured his expected third term as general secretary and packed the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Politburo with loyalists. But then in November, nationwide protests against draconian Covid-19 lockdowns caught the political establishment on the back foot. And it, in turn, in December surprised everyone by abruptly ending many of its zero-covid measures. At the start of 2023, the China watchers we surveyed consider the ongoing dynamics of Covid-19, the geopolitical environment and a looming global recession as the top three challenges the country in the (still almost) 12 months ahead. They are seen as additional risks to China’s economic and technological development, with the potential to put greater pressure on Chinese society. Given this, our respondents consider Covid-19 measures, economic stress and social inequality the most likely triggers of renewed public dissent. To access the MERICS 2023 FORECAST please click here.
Our sincere thanks to MERICS for sharing the Forecast.
