As the curtains close on 2022, the three-year pandemic continues to cast a long shadow. Yet with China moving rapidly from containment to coexistence, the last major economy to do so, 2023 may be considered the first year in which the world decided to live with Covid.
China entered the pandemic in 2020 with swift state mobilization that locked down major hubs, built makeshift clinics, and erected a sprawling testing, tracking, and quarantine operation that achieved one of the lowest case counts in the world.
The country’s exit from Zero-Covid, however, is a study in rapid state demobilization, including the dismantling of much of the Covid apparatus that has been in place for three years. It’s a process that has unfolded with the same speed as the initial mobilization.
That stark contrast is plain for all to see.
During such topsy-turvy years, it is easy to fixate on the daily noise. Just like in 2020, when much of the attention was devoted to putting the pandemic under control, 2022 ends with our collective focus on how Beijing has willfully abandoned control of the exit.
The focus on daily cycles and headlines can amplify their actual significance and obscure subtler forces and trends that may end up much more consequential. That’s why in 2020, we reflected more broadly on what we considered “Overlooked” and “Overhyped”—factors and trends that will materially affect political and economic outcomes going forward.
With 2023 knocking on the door, it seems only appropriate to revisit how those 2020 trends held up and offer our 2022 edition of Overlooked & Overhyped.
To read the full summary please visit MacroPolo here.
Our sincere thanks to Damian Ma and the team at MacroPolo for very kindly sharing this analysis.
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